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Mayo chats with fans on eve of Draft06/06/2007 7:17 PM ET
Draft expert Jonathan Mayo fielded questions on the eve of the First-Year Player Draft from fans anxious to get the inside scoop. Mayo shared his opinions on where David Price, Rick Porcello, Jarrod Parker and many more will be selected.
Jonathan Mayo: Hello, everyone from Orlando, Fla.! We're less than 24 hours away from the announcement of the first pick and the setup here is amazing. Let's get chatting, shall we?
nate050904: Hello, Jonathan. A lot of talk is going on about the obvious pitchers like David Price and Rick Porcello. What are your thoughts and thoughts of scouts on Jarrod Parker. I've talked to Jim Callis of Baseball America and he seems to think he matches up really well.
Mayo: He definitely does match up stuff-wise to just about any pitcher, particularly from the high school ranks. The one thing that puts him behind is his size. Scouts always get a little nervous about undersized right-handers.
Eurocom: Any whispers on who the Phillies are after at No. 19?
Mayo: Plenty of whispers, no solid answers. And that's the case with anyone picking after the top pick, to be honest. There are a number of players they could be looking at, from catcher Devin Mesoraco to outfielder Julio Borbon, if he's around. A college bat like Todd Frazier could be a possibility, as well.
cubfan2427: I saw in your blog that you now expect Porcello to go past pick No. 2. Is there any chance the Cubs pick him because of the good luck they've had with Scott Boras?
Mayo: Virtually no chance. On ability, Porcello belongs in the conversation right at the top. But he's priced himself out of consideration for many teams, including the Cubs. Where he eventually lands may be one of the more intriguing side-stories of this Draft.
PVPV: Who is the fastest player in the Draft?
Mayo: Some say it's Gary Brown out in California. From a college standpoint, it might be Borbon when healthy. But if you're going to go pure speed on the baseball field right now, a lot of people say Ben Revere, a high school outfielder from Kentucky, is your guy.
Picklefork: John, Cards at No. 18. Choose one ... Matthew Harvey, Joshua Smoker, Madison Bumgarner, Kevin Ahrens or Matthew Dominguez?
Mayo: Can I go off the board for potent potables? I don't think they take any of them. Not that they're completely unwilling to take a high school guy, but I think a college player is much more likely in that spot.
punxsyphil: Is Pittsburgh looking hard at Mesoroco?
Mayo: They're looking, but I don't know that they're looking hard at this point. Obviously, it certainly is easier for them to have the decision-makers scout him since he's so close geographically. But right now, I think Mesoraco is not at the top of their list ... he's probably a backup option for a number of teams, starting with the Pirates at No. 4 and working down.
BigGuy22: Where do you see these Illinois guys going in the Draft? Casey Crosby, Tyler Newsome, Seth Blair, Brett Zawacki, Mike Recchia, Cody Scarpetta?
Mayo: I'm going to reach out for some help on this one, with Perfect Game USA's David Rawnsley on hand ... he'll be on the ESPN2 broadcast and will join me and Casey Stern for MLB.com's show at 6:30 p.m. ET. David, your thoughts?
David Rawnsley: This has been a banner year for Illinois high school prospects ... you can add left-handed pitcher T.J. McFarland and southpaw John Flanagan to that list as well. I think Crosby will be the first one picked, probably in the 40th-50th (comp) area. Seth Blair has also been talked about in that area by some clubs. I really like what I've heard late about Newsome. He has an excellent bat and could be a Draft day surprise.
Mayo: Thanks, David ... always nice to have such a deep bullpen to go to.
vancouverman: Hey, Jonathan. Do you see the Nats going high school pitching in this Draft (Parker, Porcello) or will they grab someone like Matt Wieters or Jason Heyward?
Mayo: A lot depends on what happens above them. They like Mike Moustakas and they'll talk about Wieters. In the end, I think they'll go college arm if they want a pitcher. Think Ross Detwiler or Daniel Moskos.
pharris2: Hey, Jonathan. The Blue Jays have two first-round picks at Nos. 16 and 21 overall. So far I've been hearing a lot about high school position players like Dominguez and Ahrens, and big college bats like Matthew Laporta and Beau Mills. Is this still what your hearing?
Mayo: Yes, more or less. I think they showed last year that if the right high school player was there, they wouldn't hesitate (and Travis Snider can hit a little). There are some high school hitters who fit in realm. The guys you mentioned could fit, as could Peter Kozma. In an ideal world, maybe they'd mix in a college arm with the high school bat, but there probably won't be one they'd really like to take when they pick.
Zach9: Jon, is there any chance the Reds take Porcello?
Mayo: None. Zach also asked about them taking a bat like Ahrens over an available pitcher and whether that was a mistake. It's not a mistake if the right bat is there. They are a team that could use a college arm that could get there fast, but there's a dropoff after the top guys go off the board. If I'm the Reds, I take the high school bat over the high school arm.
drad0204: Please don't tell me that the Rockies are seriously considering drafting Nicholas Schmidt at No. 8. Why don't they go after a high ceiling player such as Porcello or Detwiler (if they fall) or a toolsy player such as Heyward?
Mayo: OK, I won't tell you. Step away from your computer for a few minutes. Everyone else ... yes, they are considering Schmidt. I think they'd consider Detwiler, but he won't be there. Porcello won't be an option for the same reason he won't be taken up ahead of them. Heyward's name has been attached to the Rockies, but they do have some players like that in their system. Why not take a guy like Schmidt, who pitches down in the zone and will get to Colorado in a hurry.
Mayo: OK, you can come back now.
yanks_07: Who do you think the Yankees will take in the first round?
Mayo: It's hard in any year to project No. 30 and this year may be the toughest. That being said, I think there's a chance you could put one of the "signability" guys who slides to them. Porcello? Maybe. Harvey? Could be. Andrew Brackman? That would be intriguing.
fishfan23: Do the Marlins keep stockpiling arms with their pick at No. 12 or do they look for a bat like Heyward?
Mayo: Could be either, but my last projection had them taking Borbon. Not drafting for need, but it doesn't hurt that they could use a leadoff center fielder type.
arie04: Of the following pitchers, which have shown the characteristics that translate into being most effective in the bigs, Porcello, Parker, Detwiler, Phillippe Aumont, or Moskos?
Mayo: Based on pure ability alone, right now, I'd pick Porcello. He's got stuff plus command, plus a projectable frame that suggests his plus stuff could get even better. Each of those guys have the ability to be big-league pitchers. Some will take longer than others. Ask me that question again in five years.
pad_squad: Who do you think the Padres will be looking at with the No. 23 pick in the Draft? They don't need pitching but if there is some quality pitching available will they go with that? Do you think that there will be some quality bats left at No. 23?
Mayo: There will be some quality bats left and you could see some college position players sneak up to them now. Right now, I've got James Simmons in their spot, a college pitcher from University of California Riverside. They'd have some interest in USF's Aaron Poreda should he be there.