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Fantasy 411 chat wrap, 7/107/01/2008 6:05 PM ET
Cory Schwartz: Hey all it's Cory, I'll be doing the chat today and will start in a few minutes, submit your questions now!
hlwdjsd: hi, it's me, Jeanne from Hollywood; trying to shake things up in my mafia 12 team vanilla keeper league--I have an offer on the table that would give me Kemp and Chris B. Young for Manny, but I'm thinking of offering another team either Posada for Furcal,
Schwartz: Not a bad offer... you'd be getting a lot of speed (especially if Young starts running again) and good run production, but the AVG could hurt a little
Schwartz: As for Furcal, he's started his rehab but I'd wait 'til he's active to be safe
hlwdjsd: hmmm, my question was truncated, other possible offer Manny and Posada for Sizemore
Schwartz: That's not a bad offer either... Sizemore is a superstar despite the low AVG, although it's tough to find a good catcher... but you gotta give value to get value
Schwartz: C'mon folks send in those questions!
pfelon: Will Clint Barmes ever get back on track? Will Tulo?
Schwartz: It's reasonable to expect some rust from guys coming back from such long layoffs
Schwartz: But remember that Barmes was overachieving big-time before he got hurt, so some cooling off should be expected... conversely, Tulo should have a big hot streak at some point soon to get back to where he belongs
pfelon: Is Eric Gagne a good speculative pickup at closer, or do you think Torres locked it up for the rest of the year?
Schwartz: Two things have to happen for Gagne to close again: he has to pitch well enough to take the job and Torres has to give it up. That could happen at some point, but I would wait for Gagne to string together a few good outings first... he didn't do that even before he went on the DL.
Schwartz: FYI, it looks like Chipper Jones will be put on the DL today
calvin_c: Hey Cory, Love the commercial with you and Mike. My question is Rank these players for second half? Delmon Young, Paul Konerko, Travis Hafner and Carlos Pena. I'm in a standard 12 team, nonkeeper, mixed. Also J.Borowski or Izzy?
Schwartz: That commercial is painful to watch!
Schwartz: Those are some unappetizing choices, but since I have to pick, I'll go Konerko, Pena, Young and Hafner... Hafner is a long way from relevance
Schwartz: Borowski is the closer for now but is not good, whereas Isringhausen is pitching setup/middle but throwing fairly well... I'd guess that Izzy gets more saves the rest of the way, but it's an ugly choice
pfelon: Better fantasy second baseman the rest of the season: Kendrick or Pedroia?
Schwartz: Pedroia has almost matched already what he did last year, but is striking out more and hitting more grounders than last year
Schwartz: Kendrick hasn't hit at all since coming off the DL, and plays in a lesser lineup than Pedroia
Schwartz: So it's tough to not continue riding Pedroia, although I still like Kendrick better long-term
calvin_c: The commercial is fun, maybe you guys can do a top 5 commercials someday. Thanks.
Schwartz: Great suggestion! I will pass it on to Casey, the keeper of the suggestions list.
pfelon: Real deal or faking the funk: Jason Kubel? Russell Branyan? Nate McLouth?
Schwartz: Dan, thanks for keeping the chat going so far...
Schwartz: I think Kubel is a legit 22-25 HR source, and he could bump up the AVG... Branyan will be exposed before long just like he always is...
Schwartz: McLouth came back to earth with a thud in June... I always viewed him as a 16-18 HR type guy, and he's almost there already, so a sharp decrease in his power wouldn't surprise me, but I think he'll compensate by doing more running
cozzolino: Hey Cory, NS here....would you deal W. Taveras for Scott Baker? I have the speed to spare and need help in ERA & WHIP
Schwartz: Yes! Taveras could be serious trade bait and even if not he's a one-category player... Baker is still very HR prone but doesn't walk anyone and his K rates are improving, I like his upside
richmill: what do you think of Manny Parra in Arizona on thursday?
Schwartz: Pro: He's on a serious roll, and the D'Backs offense is slumping... Con: he's been inconsistent on the road and the D'Backs hit lefties pretty well... Still, I'd take my chances on a good arm when he's on a roll.
jkulczycki: If Longoria matches his 1st half numbers after the break, where does he rank for 3B heading into next year?
Schwartz: 3B's I take over Longoria next year, in no particular order...
Schwartz: A-Rod, Wright, Cabrera (if he still qualifies), Atkins (if in Coors), Ramirez... guys like Beltre and Encarnacion could get into the mix too. So let's call that 5th-7th rounds in 12-team non-keeper leagues.
calvin_c: Hardy or Tulo? I was thinking of dropping one to pic up Corpas, 14 team standard mixed nonkeeper. Closers are a premium. I was thinking of proposing a trade but both were recently on the Wire so not sure if anyone will give anything back until they do som
Schwartz: Corpas seems to have gotten his act together lately and Fuentes is rumored to be trade bait, so it's a good gamble. I'd probably let go of Hardy; Tulo is due for a big run.
pfelon: Glad the room filled up now- it was almost like a personal consult (I'll send some swag as payment). David Murphy isn't really going to finish near the top of the AL in RBI, is he? Right now he's tied for 6th.
Schwartz: I'm here for everyone! I bet against Murphy in a recent Roundtable and I'm sticking with it.
cozzolino: Is Wainwright worth pursuing as well or do you think the middle finger injury will make for disappointing results when he returns? Thks
Schwartz: If it's true that nothing in his finger was torn, he should come back OK after the rest. But the Cardinals have a very spotty history of providing clear and complete injury info., so there's real risk here too. But for the right price he's worth a gamble.
jkulczycki: I have Litsch & Hochevar in a 14-team pt. league, is Campillo worth dropping one of those guys for?
Schwartz: I'd gamble on Campillo over Litsch; I don't like his extreme contact style, which has produced some very ugly lines recently.
cozzolino: Other than the obvious, any SP's you would target to lower ERA and/or WHIP in the second half....thks.
Schwartz: Josh Beckett should be able to lower his ERA...
Schwartz: Jake Peavy, assuming he's healthy...
Schwartz: Chad Billingsley is still getting his stats in order after a slow start; his ERA may settle in soon but he can lower his WHIP...
Schwartz: Roy Oswalt seems to be turning things around if the adductor doesn't put him on the DL...
Schwartz: Randy Johnson can't be this bad can he?
Schwartz: A.J. Burnett is a good target too... that outta do for now. -)
ankiel4prz: What do you think about Texas' Chris Davis? Is he worth a look in a 12-team mixed?
Schwartz: He's got huge power but strikes out a ton... somewhere in the Adam Dunn/Ryan Howard mold. He's got a window of opportunity to win some meaningful playing time but the K's could sour perceptions of him. Worth a gamble, but a conservative one.
richmill: what's the plan in seattle with clement? cosidering johjima's contract. and when will they dump sexon?
Schwartz: Clement should get the bulk of the PT behind the plate if he can make better contact... his bat will determine his playing time. They should clean house, but who is tradable? Bad team and they are stuck with many of those guys.
jkulczycki: Assuming Putz heals properly, does Morrow go back to set-up guy or will he be stretched out ala Joba?
Schwartz: Morrow was originally a starter so that may be his future, but they have needs all over the place and you have to question whether or not the organization will see the big picture. With Bavasi gone, there's a better chance of that.
pfelon: Better second catcher option the rest of the way: Doumit or Clement? Clement seems to have all this potential, but he hasn't shown much production so far.
Schwartz: I think Doumit's bat is legit, and he's on a better team in a better ballpark. Clement has great upside but can't make consistent contact, at least not yet.
cozzolino: Chris Davis or Scott Baker? Chris Davis or Andre Either?
Schwartz: Davis vs. Baker is apples vs. oranges. I'd take Ethier over Davis, I think he's a better hitter and more likely to hold his playing time.
cozzolino: Would you deal BJ Upton FOR Beckett and Weeks? Other option, would you deal Fielder straight up for Johan?
Schwartz: Fielder for Johan, yes, in a second! I think Fielder is a very good hitter but the 50-HR season last year created some unrealistic expectations. Johan hasn't been great this year, and his numbers are down from past years, but I'd still like to gamble on him.
ankiel4prz: Milledge going down with the hamstring has marked the epitome of a dissapointing season from him - with a star-studded DL already, do you think that he's droppable in a 12-team, mixed, 4-keeper league?
Schwartz: I think you're underrating him... he has struggled at times and the AVG hurts, but he was on pace for a 15 HR, 60 RBI, 25 SB season, which isn't bad for a 23-year-old in his first MLB season and in a terrible lineup.
calvin_c: How do you think Thames and Votto will do in the second half of this season? Think they'll keep hitting? Are Kubel or ........Luke Scott.... better bets?
Schwartz: I rank them: Votto, Scott, Kubel, Thames. Scott and Kubel were my two "underrated" OF's in the season preview show and both have provided decent value.
richmill: POD Ryan Rowland-Smith today? just kidding.
Schwartz: Um, yeah, I'll pass. Calling him the Belgian ambassador to the UN isn't my joke but I think it's hysterical anyway.
ankiel4prz: Is there any reason to believe that the Cardinals might give Colby Rasmus significant PT in the OF after a call-up, or was that purely speculation from Mr. Sheehan and Mr. Carrol yesterday? With Barton, Ankiel, Ludwick, Schumaker, Duncan, and the ever-con
Schwartz: He's turned it on big-time in the last month and is an elite prospect. He could and should be a better player than any of those guys in short order, so if they feel they have a shot, I would expect to see him called up before much longer.
jkulczycki: I have Zimmerman & V-Mart. on the DL, which of those 2 has a better second half to try & build up to pre-season expectations?
Schwartz: Probably V-Mart but both are dealing with some pretty significant injuries. Tough break to get two such promising players and have them both get hurt.
richmill: j rollins for ellsbury and the riot, fair? keeper league
Schwartz: I would not deal Rollins for those two. Ellsbury has been getting the bat knocked out of his hands throughout June, and neither offers any power at all. You can do better for a first-rounder.
calvin_c: Thanks, another: With Pierre's injury do you see Andruw J.........ones coming back sooner? Does it matter? I seem to be stuck on these players older players with good history.
Schwartz: Jones is on rehab already so he should be back soon. It will be interesting to see if it was his health holding him back before, or if he's just fallen off the cliff.
ankiel4prz: What do you make of Zumaya picking up a SV last night? I understand that Jones had been used in the past 2, but is this more significant?
Schwartz: Jones has been worked hard lately so maybe this was just a night off. But Zumaya had serious cheese and Leyland has thrown him right back into the late innings so I wouldn't rule out this being the start of something...
mlbicon31: hey i have a question on a trade troy tula for orlando carbera
Schwartz: I'd rather have Cabrera. He doesn't have Tulo's power but in every other way I'd prefer him.
gametime78: I have Aaron Rowand on the bench, and was just wondering about dumping him for somebody on FA List. This season has been lack luster for Rowand and I been wondering when is he going to produce for this Giants team? Keep him or dump him?
Schwartz: If you think he's having a lackluster season, your expectations were probably too high. He could steall more, but otherwise, this is Aaron Rowand.
jkulczycki: Early May I traded Rollins for Cliff Lee & Kershaw, same 14-team keeper league (Rollins was iffy as keeper due to salary, Lee/Kershaw have min. salaries) bad move? Drew is my SS now.
Schwartz: It seems to be working out fine for this year, but long-term I'd still prefer Rollins unless you just couldn't afford him.
cozzolino: When Soriano returns, would you deal him for C.C.? thks.
Schwartz: Probably not. As hot as CC is, and as overrated as Soriano may be, I don't like to deal a well-rounded offensive contributor for any SP not named Johan. -)
mlbicon31: with a nice first start for darly thompson with 10k's is he good enough to get picked up
Schwartz: Daryl Thompson of the Reds? He of the 4 K's in 10 IP? I'll pass for now, thanks.
jkulczycki: on the Zumaya note...better odds of closing by the end of the year: Zumaya or Chris Perez?
Schwartz: Perez got off to a hot start but seems to have regressed, and still has Franklin and Izzy in front of him. But Leyland is tough to read and might just have been giving Jones a rest. Toss-up but I'll stick with Perez.
mlbicon31: i was offered nick blackburn,dana eveland and lugo for Mat Garza and j.j hardy
Schwartz: Pass. I'd take Garza over either of those guys and Hardy is at worst even with Lugo.
RedsFan47: I am in a 7x7 Head to Head Mixed 12 Team Keeper League. If the season ended today, the 5 keepers I would have are : Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Matt Holliday, Ryan Braun, and Ryan Howard. The Extra Hitting Cats are OPS and K's for hitters. Do you see a
Schwartz: Great keeper list, although Howard's struggles are a growing concern. What's the question?
mlbicon31: when magglio come off the dl would you trade for ichiro
Schwartz: If you have power and need speed, it's fair value.
RedsFan47: Sorry Corey, got cut off Do you see a significant upgrade.
Schwartz: Possibly over Howard, but the other guys are slam-dunk first-rounders... if Howard heats up see if you can get some speed for him, perhaps Rollins or Reyes?
bdhindc: What is your thoughts on French the remainder of the season?
Schwartz: French fries, french dressing, french bread?
ankiel4prz: Liriano's line last night for Triple-A Rochester: 7ip, 0r, 9k, 1bb. Any thoughts on how well his stuff will translate at the MLB level in the second half?
Schwartz: We had Will Carroll on the show yesterday and he doesn't think Liriano is really cutting loose yet, he might still not trust his own health. He's been erratic at AAA but it would seem he could at least hold his own right now in the Majors.
pfelon: Thanks for the chat Cory, much obliged. Do you think Bourn will get his average up in the second half (.274 in June seems promising), or is he just Juan Pierre without the hits? Making him... Chuckie Carr?
Schwartz: Bourn just needs to make better contact, he keeps the ball on the ground well enough. .274 sounds about right going forward.
richmill: what do you think of extra catagories K's, assists, QS and holds?
Schwartz: Batting K's? Don't like it. Don't like fielding assists either. QS and Holds are better, but Holds are situational.
bdhindc: sorry, Francouer (Frenchy)...not French....LOL
Schwartz: Oh, him! I was onboard with the notion of him as a breakout hitter this year, but the improvement in his plate discipline seems to have stagnated and he's becoming an increasingly ground-ball style hitter. The lineup should keep the RBI chances up, but we won't see more power without a turnaround in his approach.
mlbicon31: whats ur thoughts on justin upton gettin as hot he did in the beginning of the season ....or is it time to trade him
Schwartz: A very talented young player taking his lumps at the toughest level. Remember, he's only 20! Still, he might need some time back in AAA to get going again, so in a non-keeper league, it's OK to move on.
ankiel4prz: You seem to be down on Ellsbury - do you think that he'll get back in his groove, or is this the time to get off of the train and sell?
Schwartz: Joe Sheehan wrote a great piece about this on BPro today and it's tough to find fault in his reasoning: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7739
Schwartz: Still, I think Ellsbury is a good hitter and will get going again, but pitchers have adjusted to him so now he needs to counter that
Schwartz: He could fatigue as the season progresses, but he doesn't walk many, keeps the ball down and doesn't give a lot of homers, so those facts all work in his favor.
bdhindc: What do you think Danks stats will be for 2nd half?
Schwartz: Sorry, the above answer goes to this question about Danks.
bdhindc: Carroll & Sheehan seemed down on Danks for 2nd half, didnt know if your views differed., thanks.
Schwartz: As noted above, Danks performance is hard to criticize; I think their concerns had more to do with him going around the league a 2nd-3rd time, and the fatigue as the season progresses. But performance wise, there's not much to complain about.
RedsFan47: Is Ryan Howard and KROD for Hanley a fair offer? and why is Ron Cey your favorite player?
Schwartz: Might be overshooting the mark a bit; if Howard heats up you might regret this a little bit... Hanley only has 36 RBI after all.
Schwartz: As for Ron Cey, my Dad was always a Dodgers fan, and as a little kid, I thought 3B was the most exciting position on the field. Add 'em up in 1977 and you got Ron Cey, and he's been my guy ever since.
ankiel4prz: What are your thoughts on Jay Bruce's chance on adjusting to what he's already seen and turning that into some more breakout success this season?
Schwartz: He was the elite prospect in the minors for good reason and got off to a hot start, but the league adjusted to him. He'll have to adjust back, like Ellsbury, but his status as an elite prospect should provide some confidence that he will.
bdhindc: Wow, funny, same for me which is why its Yanks, and Nettles.
Schwartz: Had my Dad been a Yankees fan I'm sure it would've been Nettles for me too!
twins9000: Ian Kinsler or Chase Utley and let's assume they play in the same size ballpark.
Schwartz: Chocolate and peanut butter or peanut butter and chocolate? I'll go with Utley for his superior plate discipline, but Kinsler is younger and still improving. Best solution: get both! -)
bdhindc: Thanks, your advice is greatly appreciated, and more importantly, followed quite often, well ok, its taken into concideration....really want to thank you.
Schwartz: Very kind of you to say! Hope it's helpful to everyone.
Schwartz: BTW, I'm going to take as many questions as I can until 4:30 so keep 'em coming!
bdhindc: What would you place the odds on Wang pitching for Yanks in Sept? Any news on timeframe and return this year?
Schwartz: I'd say it's 70/30 he will come back at least in a limited role, but it's almost certain it wouldn't be before September.
RedsFan47: Cey and Nettles were great, but they were no Chris Sabo.
calvin_c: Here's one for you. Peralta or Lugo for this season.
Schwartz: Hopefully Peralta's 5-hit game is the start of something big for him. Lugo hasn't hit for power or produced any SB's this year, so Peralta's power upside makes him the better gamble.
mlbicon31: willy taveras for joey gathright whats ur thought same value?
Schwartz: I'm not Taveras fan but at his worst he's better than Joey Gathright's best.
irishcbomb: Do you think the talk about platooning Matt Kemp is legit? Where do you see his playing time going when Andruw Jones comes back?
Schwartz: Kemp is still only 23 and has at least held his own against righties this year (.696 OPS). He's never going to learn to hit them by sitting on the bench. His bigger problem is his brutal walk rate and tendency to chase breaking stuff in the dirt.
bdhindc: Latest news is Hughes is out for season, I have Kennedy on DL, do you think Ian can come back and if so, will he be more pitch than ditch for balance of season?
Schwartz: Kennedy seems to be getting back on track in his minor league rehab (19-1 K-BB in 3 starts) so don't give up on him yet. He could be a Slowey type who emerges from PoD when his command is on, and the Yankees certainly have rotation openings. Dont' give up on him.
jkulczycki: Even with Ordonez out & possibly Cabrera for a bit too...does Granderson still keep putting up numbers like in June with a depleted lineup behind him?
Schwartz: It wasn't realistic to expect Granderson to match last season's numbers, but a recent hot streak has gotten him pretty close. He's hitting lefties a little and keeping the strikeouts down a little, but a few more walks would be nice. Future superstar if he's not there yet already.
bdhindc: Willingham or Griffrey for balance of seaon (5x5 vanilla)?
Schwartz: Willingham would probably be more productive but is a big injury risk now due to his back.
mlbicon31: will mulder get back to his starter form before the season is over
Schwartz: I would assume not.
mlbicon31: i have seen alexie ramirez get hot lately u think he going to stay at second base for the rest of the season
Schwartz: Count on it, Guillen loves him and he's pretty clearly established as their 2B this year and SS of the future since Cabrera will be a free agent.
jkulczycki: Is Randy Johnson worth holding on to or has he become another guy that tried to play a few more seasons than he should have?
Schwartz: His K rates suggest he still has something in the tank, I wouldn't give up yet.
ankiel4prz: When you can't make the show and you excuse it by saying you had to tend to your 'real job', what exactly is that? I'd think your work for the 411 was of the utmost importance, you've been great!
Schwartz: I run the stats department; we do data capture for MLB, minor league, winter league and other games where MLB players are involved. Gameday is the best known demonstration of what we do.
calvin_c: So is Byrnes ever going to get going this season after all this?
Schwartz: Still plenty of time to get healthy but back to back hamstring injuries will probably kill his SB value.
bdhindc: Do you think Escobar will be SP on his return (or at least before season is over???) His news that he may only be pen material doesnt excite me.
Schwartz: I doubt he will start unless they get desperate; long/setup relief is probably his best-case scenario.
sfalleta: who is on the bench of these 4: Burrel, Hawpe, Dye and Willingham?
Schwartz: Willingham would always be the odd man out.
jkulczycki: Sheets or Lee, who has the better 2nd half?
Schwartz: If healthy, Sheets could get even better. Can you say that about Lee?
ankiel4prz: In a 12-team keeper, what's your opinion on targeting Chipper for the price of Ellsbury? Do you think Chipper will have enough impact to make such a deal worthwhile?
Schwartz: You better have a great backup plan; Chipper is going on the DL today and is a lock to miss about 40 games a year.
Schwartz: OK folks, a few more quickly...
RedsFan47: In a roto league its easy to see what teams need pitching, but in a head to head league its more difficult, how do you percieve who needs pitching in this format?
Schwartz: 7 useful SP's in a 12-team H2H league, that's the minimum. You define "useful." -)
RedsFan47: Cory, the new adjustment to Gameday is awesome, the pitching look from either from the hitter or pitcher is a great touch, was this your idea?
Schwartz: Thanks! I was on the team that worked on this but it's not fair to say it was my idea. A lot of smart and talented people made this happen, glad you like it.
richmill: what does vanilla mean?
Schwartz: 12-team, 5x5 mixed non-keeper league. It's the vanilla of fantasy leagues.
mlbicon31: so wats ur opinion on pickin up alexis and droping figgins? and wats ur thought on ibanez for willigham, and j.j hardy, chavez and livan for cueto
Schwartz: I wouldn't go that far!
Schwartz: That's all for today folks, thanks for all the great questions!
Schwartz: We'll be back tomorrow from 2-3 pm ET for another edition of the Fantasy 411, just like we do every weekday. Thanks for your support and check out the blog for more: fantasy411.mlblogs.com... Schwartz, out!
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