04/13/2007 10:27 AM ET
Don't jump the starting gun
Patience key to early-season evaluation process
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The Week Ahead |
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Jason Grey
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Braves left-hander Chuck James allowed only one earned run in 11 innings over his first two starts. (AP)
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Every April as I write my columns, I worry about sounding like a broken record, because there is one word that I continually use to calm down panicking owners.
That word is patience.
Remember Chris Shelton's start last season? Things sure changed for him in a hurry, didn't they? He wound up back in the Minor Leagues.
Carlos Silva is far outpitching Boof Bonser for the Twins right now, but if you think that is going to continue over the balance of the season, you're being very shortsighted. That's the kind of approach that'll cost you a championship.
Stats and standings are still very skewed by sample size at this point of the season. Check back with your teams at the end of the month, and you'll get a more accurate view of where you stand.
Be patient with your slow starters, and don't get too excited about your fast ones.
Two-start pitchers: Week of April 16
In the introduction to this section last week, I wrote that these are always based on the best information available to us as of Friday morning and that they are subject to change based on rainouts, injuries or managerial decisions. I forgot to include snow. In any case, the same caveats apply this week.
Best bets
Chuck James & John Smoltz, ATL (@ WAS, @ NYM): James has allowed just one earned run in his first two starts and two earned runs or fewer in 11 of his past 13 outings dating back to last season. Smoltz is, well ... Smoltz. You play him every week.
Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS (@ TOR, NYY): So he got outpitched by Felix Hernandez this past week? So what? He's still an automatic starter.
Justin Verlander, DET (KC, CWS): Verlander has yet to allow a run in 13 innings this season but is winless. Such is life.
Felix Hernandez, SEA (MIN, @ LAA): All hail the King! What more can you say about his start to the season that hasn't already been said?
Adam Wainwright, STL (PIT, @ CHC): He's looked very good in the rotation thus far.
Solid plays and sleepers
Jered Weaver, LAA (@ BOS, SEA): Weaver is coming off of two strong rehab starts and should be ready to go. We need to see how he does before we can start moving him into the "best bet" category.
Edgar Gonzalez & Micah Owings, ARI (LAD, @ SF): Randy Johnson may not be ready next week, so these two are likely pitching for one rotation spot, and both could do a good job continuing in that role. Owings is the leader at this juncture, with Gonzalez likely to move to the 'pen, but it's still an open competition. Both are excellent sleepers in NL-only play this season.
Adam Loewen, BAL (@ TB, TOR): His control has wandered a bit at times, but he's allowed just two runs over his first 10 innings this season.
Jon Garland, CWS (TEX, @ DET): He tossed seven shutout innings with just six baserunners allowed in his last start, but he's not as great a play in mixed leagues as you might think.
Matt Belisle, CIN (MIL, PHI): Belisle has picked up a cutter to replace his curveball, and it's made him a very different pitcher, one worth watching closely.
Jake Westbrook, CLE (@ NYY, @ TB): He's usually a pretty safe start.
Jeff Francis & Jason Hirsh, COL (SF, SD): Both are worth a look in NL-only play, even given the two home starts this week.
Wandy Rodriguez & Chris Sampson, HOU (FLA, @ MIL): Both are mild sleepers in NL-only play and have shown enough to be played with caution this week.
Brad Penny & Brett Tomko, LAD (@ ARI, PIT): Both should be solid plays this week -- especially Tomko, who's looked very good thus far.
Claudio Vargas & David Bush, MIL (@ CIN, HOU): Vargas struck out nine in his first start of the season and is coming off of a year in which he was quietly effective away from Chase Field, his former home park (4.15 road ERA, top 15 in NL). Bush has pitched better than his numbers have indicated thus far and is a safer play in mixed leagues than you might think.
Oliver Perez & Tom Glavine, NYM (@ PHI, ATL): Yes, Perez followed up a dazzling debut by walking seven in 2 2/3 innings his last time out. I bet he finds the strike zone a bit more this week, because I like what I've seen of his mechanics since the spring. As far as Glavine, you pretty much know what to expect each time he takes the mound, especially early in the season, when hitters are still getting dialed in.
Tom Gorzelanny, PIT (@ STL, @ LAD): Gorzelanny has really been spotting his fastball well so far and has three pitches working well.
Greg Maddux, SD (@ CHC, @COL): Tossed six shutout innings his last time out.
Noah Lowry, SF (@ COL, ARI): He's barely out of the "avoid" category this week because of his tough schedule. You may want to bench him if you have other options.
James Shields, TB (BAL, CLE): Shields has thrown six stellar innings before running into trouble in the seventh in each of his first two starts. The numbers are still pretty decent so far, and they will get better.
Avoid
Paul Maholm, PIT (@ STL, @ LAD): He has to start throwing more strikes and working deeper into games.
Eric Milton, CIN (MIL, PHI): I don't see a situation where I'd ever feel a need to put Milton in my lineup.
Jerome Williams & Jason Bergmann, WAS (ATL, @ FLA): Williams was passable in his last outing despite having problems finding the plate and will face the Braves for the second time in a week. He's an NL sleeper this season, but that's a bad combination. Meanwhile, Bergmann had to come through with a good outing his last time out just to save his rotation job, which is still in jeopardy.
Robinson Tejeda, TEX (@ CWS, OAK): It's feast or famine when it comes to Tejada, with more of the latter to be expected.
Gustavo Chacin, TOR (BOS, @ BAL): I'm no a fan and never really have been.
Julian Tavarez, BOS (LAA, NYY): I want to see him throw more strikes before giving him consideration, and his two matchups this week are tough.
Jason Marquis & Wade Miller, CHC (SD, STL): I'd prefer not to have either of them on my NL roster.
Mike Maroth, DET (KC, CWS): He's given up too many baserunners thus far to consider.
Sergio Mitre & Rick Vanden Hurk, FLA (@ HOU, WAS): Neither of these pitchers instills a lot of confidence in me this week, even in NL-only play, and even considering they get to face the anemic Nationals.
Jorge De La Rosa, KC (@ DET, MIN): If De La Rosa is locating, his raw stuff makes him tough to hit. However, he left too many balls up in his last start after spotting his fastball well in his first outing of the season. That inconsistency makes him tough to peg from week to week, but we err on the side of benching him.
Darrell Rasner, NYY (CLE, @ BOS): This is a bad week of matchups for a pitcher who is a borderline Major League starter to begin with.
Clay Hensley, SD (@ CHC, @ COL): Hensley shouldn't be started until he shows that his blister issue is completely behind him. The upside is obviously there, but the safer play right now is to keep him on the bench.
Adam Eaton & Jamie Moyer, PHI (NYM, @ CIN): I don't like either of these matchups for either of these pitchers this week. You could make a case for starting them in NL-only play, and I would not argue. It depends on the other options available to you, but I'd look elsewhere if I had solid alternatives.
Matt Morris, SF (@ COL, ARI): I really don't like either of these matchups this week. Two good offensive teams in two good hitters' parks could add up to bad lines for Morris, who got hit hard at Coors last year (7.30 ERA) because of his reliance on his curve.
Randy Keisler, STL (PIT, @ CHC): He's never shown enough dominance in the Minors to make me think he can hang onto a Major League rotation spot.
Jason Grey is the content manager for FantasyBaseball.com and a two-time Tout Wars and LABR champion.
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