Beyond September: Keepers Quarrel
Every week, two of MLB.com's fantasy writers will be squaring off in a real fantasy debate, whatever that means. A war of words between Ben Heller and Tim Ott follows ...
Ben: For those of us in keeper leagues, the last month of the season provides one last look at the players we can lock down for the next few years. We can watch Marlins games to try and decipher if Dan Uggla, Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez are for real. We can watch Dodgers games to learn more about their deep rookie crop, or we can pay close attention to the Diamondbacks to see if their kids are as good as advertised. As for me, I’ve been watching Reds games of late, knowing that there aren’t many other breakout corner infielders I’d rather hold onto more than Edwin Encarnacion. Two 24-RBI months at the age of 23? Now that’s someone with a bright future.
Tim: If the crystal ball tells us anything, it's that Edwin will be the best Encarnacion to come along in years, as Juan never quite developed into the fantasy stud many expected him to be. But while there's no denying Edwin's talent, I'm not sure he's the first corner infielder I'd want to keep. Prince Fielder is a name that immediately comes to mind, but for me, there's no better choice than Ryan Zimmerman. Washington's rookie third baseman reminds me a bit of David Wright in that he drives the ball to all fields and racks up his share of steals at a position short on speedsters. Zimmerman may not have the power upside of Encarnacion or Fielder, but he's looking like the kind of player who will stuff all facets of the stat sheet in the coming years. Like the corners, there are some tough choices when it comes to making a selection from the middle infield. I'm going to bypass some of the rookies who’ve delivered impressive numbers since April and go with the Angels' Howie Kendrick. Putting aside his fine stats (.317 average, 16 doubles and six steals in 45 games) for a moment, Kendrick just looks like a big-time hitter in the making, with his bat speed and hand-eye coordination. I think it's reasonable to expect a .300 average, 35 doubles and 15 home runs from Kendrick in 2007, and when you throw in his solid speed, you have a guy who will remain firmly entrenched on my roster when this season comes to a close.
While there’s little doubt Kendrick will compete for the batting title for the next decade and a half, when it comes to middle infielders, I like them like I like my dentist appointments -- fast. So what name comes to mind? Hanley Ramirez. The Red Sox apparently kept the reins on their once-prized prospect, who topped 30 steals only once in the Minors. But more than 40 steals through the end of August in his first season with the Marlins? Sign me up for the long haul. You can also grab speed in the outfield, but that’s where I want to lock down players with big-time speed and power potential. And though 2006 has been dubbed “The Year of the Rookie,” nobody who played a full season really fits the bill. So I’ll go with recent callup Chris Young of the Diamondbacks. Young, who turns 23 next week, smacked 21 homers and stole 17 bases in 402 at-bats for Triple-A Tucson this year. The next Carlos Beltran? I sure hope so.
Sure, Chris Young could be the next Carlos Beltran ... or he could be the next Marlon Byrd. Granted, part of the fun of keeper leagues is taking a chance on a player's potential, but I'm going to go with a guy who has already made huge strides at the Major League level in Nick Markakis. It's been a tale of two seasons for Markakis, who looked simply awful out of the gate but has done a complete 180 with a .362 average, 10 homers and 37 RBIs since the beginning of June. He doesn't run much, but I guess I'm just a sucker for these guys who look like future batting-title contenders.
I also love guys who were once contenders for the batting crown in Japan, which conveniently takes us to our next position. I know, going for Kenji Johjima is the easy choice out of a weak crop of catchers, especially since it's dubious to refer to him as a "rookie," but I can't turn down a backstop who gives you his combination of average, pop and durability. Is there anybody else who even comes close?
Kenji Johjima, eh? I’m gonna have to go ahead and disagree with you on that one, Tim. After 402 at-bats in the Land of Lattes, your boy Kenji is hitting .291 with 13 homers, 57 RBIs, 49 runs scored and one measly stolen base. What if I told you I had a rookie catcher who happens to be hitting .286 with eight homers, 51 RBIs, 47 runs scored and a whopping eight steals, but in almost 25 percent fewer at-bats? Is that something you’d be interested in? His name is Russell Martin. Even better, my young Dodger is only 23, unlike your ancient Mariner, who, like me, turned the untrustworthy age of 30 this summer. Sticking with the rookie-heavy Dodgers, another guy I’m definitely keeping is Martin’s batterymate, Chad Billingsley. It might be a deep year for rookie pitchers, but Billingsley looks like the real deal. After a bout with wildness when he first came up, the 22-year-old went 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, a .220 BAA and a 25 Ks in five August starts. He’s a National Leaguer in a pitchers’ park, and that’s the best kind of fantasy pitcher there is.
Oh good -- you can have Billingsley because the kind of keeper I’m talking about has already shown he can blow away the superior hitters of the American League while somehow making Johan Santana look like the second-best lefty on his own team. That's right, I'm talking about the one and only Francisco Liriano, who has rung up a 12-3 record, a 2.19 ERA and 142 punchouts in 119 innings pitched. And he's also only
22. Now, I do realize that Liriano is on the disabled list with an elbow strain, so I reserve the right to make a new selection if his injury morphs into something far worse over the next few weeks. After all, as Bobby Valentine once said, the greatest right a man has is the right to change his mind. Surely, you wouldn't disagree with the legendary Bobby V.?
Disagree with a man who once got tossed from a game and reappeared in the dugout wearing a mustached disguise? I would never. Disagree with someone who looks forward to keeping a pitcher with elbow troubles who’s barely old enough to taste the swinging Minnesota nightlife? Well that’s a different story. ...
This story was not subject to approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.
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