 10/28/2003 1:18 PM ET
Free agent pool could get flooded
• Top 12 free agents
• Many choices make it hard for GMs
• Unsigned players:
AL | NL
Officially it is called the free agency filing period, the 15-day window following the World Series when eligible players can file for free agency.
This year, however, it might appear as if someone shouted "Everyone into the pool!"
Over the next seven weeks, it is possible as many as one in four Major League players could be on the market as a large free agent class, combined with a number of unclaimed options and non-tenders, could flood the free agent pool to unprecedented levels.
There are approximately 195 players eligible for free agency (through Oct. 26) and that number could grow substantially by Dec. 20 -- the deadline for teams to tender or non-tender their arbitration-eligible players -- since more than 150 players are eligible for arbitration and many are expected to be non-tendered.
The talent pool will deepen further as some of the 50 players with options for 2004 either do not exercise their right to return, or, in the case of club options, the team decides against picking up the contract, making the player a free agent.
This already has happened in several cases such as San Francisco outfielder Jose Cruz Jr. and first baseman J.T. Snow, Boston right-hander Jeff Suppan, Philadelphia closer Jose Mesa, Cleveland outfielder Ellis Burks, Oakland outfielder Chris Singleton and Milwaukee left-hander Glendon Rusch and shortstop Royce Clayton.
These players joined a free agent pool that already should be well-stocked at every position with such talents as outfielders Vladimir Guerrero and Gary Sheffield, shortstop Miguel Tejada, right-handers Greg Maddux and Bartolo Colon, catchers Ivan Rodriguez and Javy Lopez, and closers Keith Foulke and Eddie Guardado.
Ivan Rodriguez / C
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The pool could also wind up including such superstars as Sammy Sosa and Frank Thomas if the sluggers do not exercise their options to return. In Thomas' case, the White Sox also would need to elect not to pick up their option on Thomas in order for him to become a free agent.
Once again the pool will include a noticeable trickle of international talent. Last year, it was outfielder Hideki Matsui; this time there's another star from across the pond who should figure prominently in the free agent economy. Kazuo Matsui, a star shortstop in Japan, has drawn interest from several teams, including the Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox, Orioles, Dodgers and Mariners.
Even teams that do not figure to be major buyers in the free agent market will be attracting plenty of attention from teams trying to pry loose via trade some of the signed talent, such as Montreal right-hander Javier Vazquez, Houston lefty Billy Wagner, Anaheim shortstop David Eckstein and Milwaukee first baseman Richie Sexson.
David Eckstein
/ SS
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With so many players expected to be available, it is difficult to predict who will wind up where at this early juncture. Right now, every team is assembling its wish list and hoping it can find a way to acquire its targets. No two teams are taking the same track, yet everybody is looking to shed or at least hold the line on payroll while at the same time looking to find this year's Esteban Loaiza, David Ortiz or Pudge Rodriguez.
Some teams, because of the sheer number of free agents and arbitration-eligibles on their rosters, tight budgets, or a combination of both factors, figure to be more active than others.
In the market
St. Louis, Boston, the Mets and Yankees, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Texas and San Francisco are among the teams looking to upgrade their pitching staffs and either have room in the budget to sign a free agent or two or are in position to perhaps trade offense for arms.
"I don't think there will be wholesale changes," St. Louis GM Walt Jocketty said of the Cardinals. "I don't think we need to do that. I think we just need to make a few changes to try and improve on what we have. We've got a very solid everyday lineup and parts of our pitching staff were very good. We've just got to try and find a way to build on it."
Significant improvements could be expensive, and that's where it starts getting complicated. A trade -- or more than one trade -- may have to happen in order to clear room on the payroll for another quality starting pitcher. Even with a payroll of around $84 million -- the highest in the NL Central -- dollars are critical for the Redbirds.
"What we may have to do with some of these guys is wait and see what the market is," Jocketty said. "Because we know what we're going to be able to afford to pay them, but it may not be what they are looking for. They may have to go out and test the market and see what the market's like."
A number of other clubs, including Kansas City, Houston, Minnesota, Colorado, Toronto and Baltimore, are also looking for pitching but will try to fill their needs cheaply and hope they discover this year's Jose Lima. Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that Seattle had not yet named a general manager as of Tuesday.
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Vladimir Guerrero
/ RF
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Big-ticket items
Last winter, Jim Thome was the biggest name to change uniforms. This year, several other superstars could be changing addresses before Spring Training rolls around, with Guerrero going to the head of the free agent class if he decides to go that route rather than return to the Expos.
Montreal GM Omar Minaya has already begun negotiations with Guerrero.
"I'm not going to comment on the negotiations," Minaya said last week. "We have opened up dialogue."
Where Guerrero winds up will impact the demand on other players, particularly Gary Sheffield. And if Sosa decides to walk, the Cubs could go after a middle-of-the lineup bat like Tejada, Guerrero, Lopez or Sheffield.
Sammy Sosa
/ RF
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If Sosa stays with the Cubs, his contract guarantees him $33 million over the next two years. Sosa, who turns 35 on Nov. 12, has an option in his contract that allows him to file for free agency after the World Series ends. Cubs GM Jim Hendry and the Cubs are awaiting Sosa's decision before mapping their course of action.
"I'll focus on the bullpen and continue to strengthen the bench," Hendry said of his plans.
Makeover anyone?
The San Francisco Giants were busy last winter after saying goodbye to Jeff Kent, David Bell, Kenny Lofton, Reggie Sanders and Russ Ortiz from a team that reached the World Series. The exodus might continue for the National League West champions as Snow and Cruz could be leaving and other Giants headed for free agency include Sidney Ponson, Tim Worrell, Rich Aurilia, Benito Santiago, Andres Galarraga and Jeffrey Hammonds.
"We're looking at a makeover, basically," GM Brian Sabean said. "Obviously, we have a number of difficult decisions to make."
With 10 players (Barry Bonds, Robb Nen, Felix Rodriguez, Neifi Perez, Ray Durham, Edgardo Alfonzo, Jason Schmidt, Marquis Grissom, Kirk Rueter and Jason Christiansen) under contract for a total of $55 million next season, Sabean will try to fill the holes on the 2004 roster without going over a budgeted payroll of roughly $75 million.
The Braves, who have 11 potential free agents, are another team that figures to be considerably active this winter.
The 2003 Atlanta payroll was just above $100 million, but even if it remains that high in 2004 it is unlikely the Braves will be able to afford to keep all of their 2003 cast, which included free-agents-to-be Sheffield, Maddux and Lopez.
Gary Sheffield
/ LF
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Sheffield and Lopez are both coming off MVP-caliber seasons that will likely earn them both at least $10 million a year, and in Sheffield's case, closer to $12 million a year. As for Maddux, who earned $14.75 million last year, he would have to take a significant cut to stay with a Braves organization that he has been a part of since 1993.
"The cold, hard bottom line of baseball economics are going to be what they are," Braves GM John Schuerholz said. "No matter how grand a year a particular player has, it cannot and it's impossible for it to alter the hard, cold economic realities of any organization."
It seems, in a best-case scenario, just one of the three big-name free agents will be back with the Braves next year. And with catcher Johnny Estrada waiting in the wings, it appears unlikely that it will be Lopez.
"Baseball economics still stink," said Schuerholz, who was forced to trade Kevin Millwood for Estrada last year because of financial restraints. "That's the premise upon which we're going to make a lot of our decisions [this winter]."
More supply than demand
With such a large supply of players available and money tight, it is expected to be a buyer's market again this year, as it was last season when many free agents did not get the kind of contracts that were routinely tendered in previous years and only the top free agents, like Thome, garnered major money.
Money will be a driving force in this market as well.
Boston, depending on what it does regarding arbitration-eligibles like Todd Walker and players entering the last year of the contracts (Nomar Garciaparra, Pedro Martinez) should be busy this winter. In any case, the Red Sox will certainly be looking for pitching and are expected to go after after one or more of the top free agent relievers and perhaps right-handed starter Bartolo Colon. But with more than $105 million already committed to the 2004 payroll, the Red Sox do not have a lot of room financially to pursue top free agents unless they first trade some salary or increase the budget.
Andy Pettitte
/ P
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The World Series champion Florida Marlins and American League champion New York Yankees have a number of personnel decisions to make in the coming days. The Marlins are not expected to make wholesale changes, as they did following their 1997 title, but the Yankees will be trying to find a replacement for the retired Roger Clemens as well as figuring out what to do regarding potential free agent left-hander Andy Pettitte.
Anaheim GM Bill Stoneman, who said in early September that the Angels would pursue a starting pitcher in the offseason, has expanded his wish list to include an outfielder, among other possible positions.
"We will be talking to pitchers, outfielders and maybe others," Stoneman said. "We're going to be actively talking to the free agent guys and also be looking on Dec. 21 at who didn't get offered contracts by their clubs. There are going to be a lot of guys we're looking at. How it will turn out, it's going to take time to find out."
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a lot of decisions to make as the team undergoes an ownership change. GM Dan Evans knows that his contract, and that of field manager Jim Tracy, runs through 2004. But he doesn't yet know the payroll he will have at his disposal.
Jeromy Burnitz
/ RF
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"First we'll decide where the areas are that we want to target," Evans said. "It's much easier, then, to take the payroll and utilize that amount to the best of our ability. We'll get the number sometime soon. Until then I'm not worried about it. We can't sign [other clubs'] free agents now, anyway."
According to Evans, decisions have not been made on position switches for right fielder Shawn Green and catcher Paul Lo Duca, and he has not discussed the subject with either player. He also has not begun contract talks with any of the Dodgers' 10 potential free agents, including Jeromy Burnitz, Tom Martin and Wilson Alvarez. Lefty reliever Paul Quantrill has an escape clause that could allow him to become a free agent as well.
Evans has not acted on options on Brian Jordan and Andy Ashby, although it is common knowledge that the club will not exercise those options. Combined with allowing Fred McGriff to leave via free agency, the decisions will free up nearly $20 million in salary.
The annual GMs meeting is scheduled for Nov. 10-14 in Phoenix. Baseball's winter meetings will be held in New Orleans Dec. 12-15.
Last year, Philadelphia took a proactive approach, striking early while the majority of teams waited for the market to come to them. This year most teams are expected to window-shop early and make deals in late December after the non-tenders are known.
With so many players on the market, teams may need the extra time just to complete their homework.
Jim Molony is a writer for MLB.com. MLB.com site reporters contributed to this report. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.
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