Jack McKeon wasn't blowing smoke when he said recently that it doesn't much matter if his Florida Marlins are in first place on Memorial Day, one of the early benchmarks that determine whether a team is for real in a pennant race.

Last year, the Marlins were leading the National League East on the day when Americans honor their war heroes. They didn't make the playoffs. Two years ago, they were 12 1/2 games out, 51 games into the season, and went on to defeat the Yankees in the World Series.

"I've seen clubs in first place on Memorial Day and not finish anywhere near first," the Marlins manager said. "I've been in first place, probably with the A's, and we were in first place on Memorial Day, and we probably ended up fifth or sixth. I don't see any importance of being in first place on Memorial Day. You are just about a third of the way through the season."

Statistically, though, McKeon might be surprised to know that his team is much better off sitting in first place on Memorial Day if it wants to be playing come October. And prior to Monday's games, the Marlins led the NL East by percentage points over the Braves.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, since the current three-division and Wild Card formats in both leagues were utilized for the first time during an entire season in 1995, 67 percent of the teams in first place on Memorial Day have gone on to make the playoffs.

That means of the six teams leading their divisions on Memorial Day this year -- the Orioles, White Sox and Angels in the AL; the Marlins, Cardinals and Padres in the NL -- two-thirds of them are likely to go to the Octoberfest.

In actual figures, since 1995, 64 teams have held at least a share of their division lead on the morning of Memorial Day. Of those 64 teams, 39 went on to win their divisions and 43 of them made the postseason.

"Really? I guess we need to be in first place by Memorial Day then," said Rangers manger Buck Showalter, whose team trailed the Angels by a half-game in the AL West prior to Monday's games. "But there is so much baseball to be played. It's great to be off to a good start and be competitive at this point. I'm not going to say 'this' means 'that,' but it is interesting."

Aside from the 2003 Marlins, there are other anomalies, of course.

Last year, of the six teams in first place on Memorial Day, four of them didn't even come close to making the playoffs. All three of the ultimate division winners in the NL -- Atlanta, St. Louis and the Los Angeles Dodgers -- weren't on top as May turned to June.

The Braves were 5 1/2 games behind the Marlins; the Cardinals were tied for third place with the Cubs, 2 1/2 games back, and the Dodgers, who clinched their first division title since 1995 on the next-to-last day of the season, were a game behind the Padres.

The Cardinals were 26-23 on Memorial Day last season and wound up winning 105 games, the NL Central and the NL pennant. St. Louis won its division by 13 games over the Houston Astros, who made a roaring second-half comeback to snare the NL's Wild Card berth on the final day of the regular season.

That comeback was necessary because the Astros plummeted from the division race after being only 1 1/2 games out of first place on Memorial Day.

This year, among the division leaders, only the 31-17 Cardinals are pulling away, leading the NL Central by 7 1/2 games over the archrival Cubs.

Cardinals manager Tony La Russa, whose teams in Oakland and St. Louis have won four pennants, said that when he thinks about Memorial Day, he thinks about the war veterans, not about where his club stands in the division race. But he certainly likes to be ahead of the pack at any time of the season.

"Everybody has a different view," La Russa said. "Some people may like playing from behind, laying in the weeds. I always like to wake up in the morning, see the club in first place and feel like you're defending first place. Some guys feel different."

More anomalies? The last three World Series winners -- Boston, Florida and the Angels -- all made the playoffs by virtue of the Wild Card slots.

Only the Red Sox were in first place on Memorial Day, last season, by a spare half-game in front of the eventual AL East-winning Yankees. The Sox were three games behind the Orioles this year.

Boston manager Terry Francona said he pays no attention to where his team is on Memorial Day. After all, the Sox staged the ultimate comeback in the AL Championship Series against the Yankees this past October.

"I don't pay attention to these percentages," he said. "I mean, last year we were down 3-0 to the Yankees. What were the percentages of us coming back from that? You play each game like it's your last one, and that's what we try to do. Just show up and do the best we can every day because this is such a grind. If we do that every day and you have the talent, you'll be OK."

This year's newcomers -- the Orioles and the White Sox -- aren't taking anything for granted. Both teams are led by second-year managers, Baltimore by Lee Mazzilli and Chicago by Ozzie Guillen. Fans in both cities haven't really sniffed the rarified air of first place in a while.

The Orioles haven't been to the playoffs since 1997 and the White Sox have been there since 2000.

Guillen noted that the 29-20 White Sox had a two-game lead on the eventual division-winning Twins in the AL Central last year on Memorial Day.

"Then we went into the tank," he said.

His 33-17 club was leading the three-time AL Central-winning Twins by four games after Sunday's action. And he still didn't think it mattered.

"We have to be careful because we aren't going to play this good all year long," Guillen said. "Just show up with the same attitude and same enthusiasm. When you do that and believe in yourself, you should be fighting for the pennant."

The Orioles were 5 1/2 games back and fading on Memorial Day last year. This year, they are 30-19 and leading Boston by three games.

"I think it's important for us to keep winning and keep that consistency and that's what we have been doing," Mazzilli said. "I'm not even looking at the standings right now. Yeah, I'd rather be in first place than last place. But it's all about who's there in the August and September. We're trying to get to that point."

Then there are the Padres, who haven't made the playoffs since 1998 and last year had their first winning season since then.

Manager Bruce Bochy, who played for the Padres as a backup catcher in the mid-1980s when McKeon was general manager, may be a Trader Jack disciple, but he doesn't share the same attitude as the 74-year-old Marlins skipper.

First place is a good place to be on Memorial Day, Bochy said.

"It means you're playing pretty good baseball," said Bochy, whose Padres were 12 games over .500. "These games early in the season are as important as any. I think divisions can be won in the first month or two, I really do. It's a lot better than being in second or third place. That's for sure."

Statistically speaking, anyway, the Padres, and all the division leaders, have a pretty good chance of staying there.