WINTER HAVEN, Fla. -- Given the deadened state of contract negotiations with C.C. Sabathia, the Indians have ample reason to begin thinking about the construction of their club.
Next year's club, that is -- the one that will take the field in 2009.
By forgoing further negotiations about an extension until after the '08 season, Sabathia, the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, has placed his first foot into the free-agent waters. And if he fully immerses himself in that seductive stream, he likely will float away from the organization he's called home since he was 17 years old.
Life with Carsten Charles, barring a collapse in the standings and a blockbuster trade, continues for the Tribe for the next eight months. But the Indians of 2008 also must brace themselves for the possibility of life without him.
So, what if Sabathia follows the path blazed by Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome and ditches the Tribe for more money and security elsewhere? It's an all-too-realistic scenario for the Indians, who simply can't afford to pay Sabathia the Johan Santana-like dollars he might command on the free-agent market and understandably are hesitant to go beyond the five-year commitment they already have offered their ace.
What would the Tribe's rotation look like without Sabathia? Who would fill the void? And most importantly, could the Indians still compete in the ultra-tough American League Central?
"I can't forecast what the division is going to look like," general manager Mark Shapiro said when the subject came up. "But I think we've got a heck of a core coming back next year. Most teams deal with major losses every single offseason and find a way to reload and rebuild. I don't see a major rebuild coming, especially tied to one player."
But while the Indians can enjoy the lineup stability afforded by the long-term contracts they've signed with Grady Sizemore, Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez and Jhonny Peralta and the relative youth of their roster -- their lineup this season figures to be the second-youngest in the AL, behind that of the Rays -- a rotation devoid of Sabathia certainly would need retooling.
The Indians take comfort in knowing Fausto Carmona, who was the No. 1(b) starter to Sabathia's No. 1(a) last season, is under contractual control through 2013.
No. 3 starter Jake Westbrook is signed through 2010, and the three men who will compete this spring for the fifth starting spot -- Cliff Lee, Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey -- are under control through 2010, 2012 and 2013, respectively. The 37-year-old Paul Byrd is the only member of this rotation who can join Sabathia in free agency this fall.
When it comes to filling a hole in the Hot Stove season, big names like Pedro Martinez, Brad Penny, Ben Sheets, A.J. Burnett and John Lackey are eligible for free agency after '08, but the costs of acquiring high-end starting pitching talent, either through free agency or trades, are prohibitive in this market.
Clearly, then, the Indians have reason this season to pay close attention to the young arms in the farm system that might be counted on if Sabathia departs.
The first in-house name that jumps to mind, of course, is that of right-handed top prospect Adam Miller. He is the Tribe's only Minor Leaguer with the natural stuff that can project to be of the ace-type variety.
Now, if only he had the health to go with it.
Miller wowed the Tribe by mowing down the competition in Spring Training camp last year and headed to Triple-A Buffalo looking primed to join the Indians at some point in 2007. Then he bruised a finger ligament and missed a month. Then he battled elbow inflammation and missed another month. Now, Miller, who missed half of '05 because of an elbow problem, is in danger of becoming just another can't-miss prospect who couldn't stay away from injuries.
"If he is healthy," Shapiro said, "and once he establishes himself in Triple-A and gets back in a rhythm, he has the ability and talent to impact our big league club at some point this year."
Last year, the Indians toyed with the idea of bringing Miller up to their bullpen before the elbow problem set in. If they were to consider that move this year, they'd have to weigh the help he could bring to the 'pen against the benefits of leaving him stretched out as a starter, should he be needed in the rotation in '09.
"I wouldn't want to get into that decision now," Shapiro said. "When we're making that decision, it will be a lot easier to answer that question. Right now, his health is first and foremost, and then we can address his potential fit, his impact, his long-term and our long-term."
In the short-term, the Indians hope to get a firmer read on what Laffey and Sowers can bring to the big league equation. They also hope to see the veteran Lee rebound from his disappointing 2007 season.
Talk of trading Lee ran rampant in the press this winter, but the Indians didn't do it. They aren't itching to pay him $3.75 million to pitch in Triple-A Buffalo again this year, but they also aren't short-sighted enough to forget he was an 18-game winner in 2005 and has the potential to help them down the road.
Down on the farm, left-handers Chuck Lofgren and Scott Lewis, two high-end picks in the 2004 Draft, each are coming off an up-and-down season at Double-A Akron. Lofgren, who pitched in the All-Star Futures Game, went 12-7 with a 4.37 ERA in 26 starts, while Lewis went 7-9 with a 3.68 ERA in 27 games. They'll have to prove themselves at Buffalo before they factor into the big league equation.
But another starter at Buffalo who is on the Major League radar is right-hander Brian Slocum. He made two spot starts for the Tribe at the end of the 2006 season, but he was limited to five starts for the Bisons in '07 because of a forearm strain, an injured hamstring and a deviated septum.
"I think Slocum's going to be a guy that, if he stays healthy, we'll be talking about again," Shapiro said. "If you look at his year two years ago [6-3, 3.35 ERA in 27 games at Buffalo], he had a remarkable season -- and great stuff to match his performance. And he pitched well in Venezuela this winter."
It's beyond dispute that the Indians enter this season with enviable starting depth. But that depth takes a major, indelible blow if Sabathia exits. That's why signing him remains a top (if now delayed) priority.
Still, considering the standards of the day and age, the Tribe's overall roster stability should remain a strength beyond '08, with or without C.C.
"As I sit here today and look into the future year," Shapiro said, "I still feel good about next year's team, in any form that it takes."