A quick review of years past suggests there isn't when forecasting which teams will ultimately make the playoffs.

On May 1, the Marlins were in first place in the National League East, but after being swept by the Dodgers, they are a half-game behind the Phillies in the division.

Obviously, few anticipated that the Marlins would have such a record this far, but the quick start makes it worth examining some other numbers more closely.

Keep in mind that four of the six teams that won their respective divisions in 2007 were in first place on May 1 -- the Red Sox, Indians, Angels and Diamondbacks.

The Marlins, meanwhile, headed into May 2007 with a 12-13 record, which placed them in third place in the division, four behind the Braves.

In 2003, when the Marlins ultimately went on to win the World Series, they finished April at 14-15 (fourth place), again four behind the Braves.

Since Major League Baseball expanded to six divisions in 1995, there have been 78 division champions. But in 1995, the season started later in April, so the first month then isn't a good indicator.

So if you look at 1996 on, there have been 72 champions, and 43 of them were in first place on May 1. Based on those numbers, 59.7 percent of the first-place teams heading into May won their divisions.

What the numbers suggest is that it mattered more who was in first in this time frame before 2001.

From 1996 to 2000, 24 of 30 (80 percent) of the division leaders on May 1 won their divisions.

But from 2001 on, 19 of 42 celebrated division titles.

The 2003 season, when the Marlins made the playoffs as a Wild Card, five of the six division winners just so happened to be in first place on May 1 -- the Yankees, A's, Braves, Cubs and Giants. Only the Royals didn't make it.