When checking on how the balance of power might have shifted this winter, the eye is naturally drawn to one particular group, the National League East.

This is the division that produced the World Series champion in 2008, thus winning first offseason consideration. Beyond that, there is reason to believe that this might be an even more difficult neighborhood in the forthcoming season. Why? Because the pitching could be, perhaps even should be, better than it was last year.

Let's start at the top with the champion Phillies. You saw them in October. Their pitching didn't require much work. Cole Hamels blossomed at precisely the right moment, putting together a dominant postseason run, going 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA. Comparisons with another left-hander, Johan Santana, officially became acceptable for Hamels.

Hamels will be at the top of a rotation that looks set, one through four, with Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, being asked to be ageless for another campaign, and Joe Blanton.

And, the Philadelphia bullpen isn't hurting for an anchor, either, with closer Brad Lidge coming off the relief equivalent of a perfect season; 48 saves in 48 opportunities, including the postseason. Ryan Madson emerged as top-shelf setup man.

Add it all up, and the Phillies didn't have to move mountains this winter. With their pitching staff, they are essentially playing a hand that has already proven it can win. It's up to everybody else in the division to figure out a way to get better than this.

The Mets have tried appropriately, addressing first their area of greatest need: the bullpen. The Mets have lost leads to the Phillies two Septembers in a row. The primary cause of the 2008 September slide was easy to identify. After closer Billy Wagner became injured and unavailable, the Mets' bullpen basically became a daily problem.

The Mets spared no effort, signing the top closer available, Francisco Rodriguez, who was coming off a record-setting season with the Angels. For good measure, they signed another closer, J.J. Putz, who will move to a setup role. On paper at least, the Mets have turned a problem into a solution.

And this week, they moved to settle their rotation, by agreeing in principal with lefty Oliver Perez on a three-year, $36 million contract. The Mets have had two seasons of Perez, and he has gone a presentable 25-17 for them. He is more erratic than they would like, but his talent level is indisputably good enough. And he is only 27, so there is still room for growth in this career.

The Mets rotation looks better now that it is settled in at least four spots, with the two-time Cy Young Award winner Santana at the top, John Maine, a 15-game winner in 2007 back in good health after a shoulder injury, Mike Pelfrey, coming off a breakout season, and Perez.

A rotation that might be as good as any at some point belongs to the Marlins. They have a young and extremely talented core, which approaches the 2009 season in much better health than it had at this time last year. In descending order of age, these pitchers are Ricky Nolasco, 26, Josh Johnson, 25, Anibal Sanchez, 24, Andrew Miller, 23, and Chris Volstad, 22. The odds are that not all of these pitchers are going to progress at the same rate, or have simultaneous terrific seasons immediately. But the talent level here is beyond dispute and the Marlins' long-term prospects look increasingly promising.

For years, whenever you looked at this division, the Braves had the best pitching, not only in this group, but frequently in the entire National League. The great staples of that pitching generation are no longer clustered together on the Braves' staff, but Atlanta has found some substantial veterans for another potential push back to the top of the division.

Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez have had success elsewhere, and so has a Japanese import, Kenshin Kawakami. On the other end of the experience spectrum, the Braves have the extremely promising Jair Jurrjens, 23, who was 13-10 with a 3.68 ERA last season. Jorge Campillo, no longer a kid at 30, was still was effective last season in his first extended big league exposure.

If everything breaks the way the Braves hope, this could be a genuinely strong staff. The whole operation would look more solid if closer Mike Gonzalez has health as good as his stuff.

The Nationals ranked 14th in the NL last year in team ERA. The four NL teams that qualified for the postseason ranked one through four in that category.

So, there is considerable work to be done here, but at least the Nats have some young promising arms to build a future upon, including lefty starters John Lannan and Steve Olsen, Joel Hanrahan, who took over the closer's role in the second half of 2008, and reliever Steven Shell, who put up a 2.16 ERA in 39 appearances with the Nationals last season.

The best baseball bottom line is pitching in quality and quantity. That's the early NL East forecast. The Phillies have every reason to believe that their pitching will be just as good as it was in 2008, when they won everything. The other clubs all have reasons to believe that their pitching will be significantly improved in 2009.

The Mets, who finished just three games behind the Phillies in 2008, have particular cause to feel that their bullpen improvements will more than make up that deficit. But solid reasons for increased pitching optimism can be found in at least four of the NL East clubs, putting this division well above the national average and directly into the categories of tough and extremely competitive.