NewsShowdown: Johnny Cueto vs. Justin Upton
Surging youngsters square off in battle of power vs. power
By Alden Gonzalez / MLB.com
05/13/09 3:00 PM ET
They were supposed to be standouts in 2008.But perhaps their respective clubs will forgive them for providing that production one year later.
That's because throughout the early part of this season, Reds right-hander Johnny Cueto and Diamondbacks right fielder Justin Upton have been surging, just as originally scripted.
With their first-year kinks all but a distant memory, the two promising youngsters will have their first head-to-head encounter of '09 on Wednesday.
An oblique injury and unsteady production left Upton without particularly inspiring numbers last season, but he did have the joy of breaking up a perfect game with a home run in the sixth inning of Cueto's Major League debut.
Clearly, though, Cueto seems to be a much better pitcher now, and Upton looks like an entirely different hitter.
So how will these two budding stars match up?
The Showdown takes a detailed look:
The Basics
Matchup: Johnny Cueto, RHP, Reds vs. Justin Upton, RF, Diamondbacks
Where: Arizona's Chase Field
When: 9:40 p.m. ET, live on MLB.TV
The Background:
Early days: Born and raised in Virginia, Upton was a supreme talent as a youngster and was the No. 1 overall pick by the Diamondbacks in 2005. After rising quickly through the ranks, he got his first taste of the bigs on Aug. 2, 2007. Cueto, on the other hand, was undrafted after learning the game in the Dominican Republic, and spent three full seasons in the Minor Leagues before getting his shot in the Reds' starting rotation last year.
Shaky beginnings: Upton played in 108 games in '08, batting .250 with 15 home runs and 42 RBIs, but missed 43 games because of an oblique injury and wound up playing 15 contests for Triple-A Tucson. Meanwhile, Cueto was healthy enough to make 31 starts for Cincinnati last season, going 9-14 with a 4.81 ERA while striking out 158 and walking 68.
The Evidence
Upton's 2009 stats: .295 AVG (31-for-105), 6 2B, 7 HR, 18 RBIs, 20 R, 3 SB in 31 G
Cueto's 2009 stats: 3-1, 1.59 ERA, 1.034 WHIP, 32/11 K/BB ratio in 39 2/3 IP (6 GS)
Head-to-head: Five plate appearances from '08 is the entire history between Cueto and Upton. Though short, their matchup is certainly intriguing, as Upton has two hits in four at-bats against the 23-year-old righty -- both of which were long balls. Against the Reds in general, Upton sports a .310 average (9-for-29) with three home runs and four RBIs in eight career games. Cueto has been equally sharp against Arizona, having surrendered just two runs while fanning 14 over 12 career frames.
The Arguments
The case for Upton: Upton went 0-for-4 against the Reds on Tuesday, and based on his recent history, the chances of that happening again are slim. In fact, Upton has not gone hitless in back-to-back games since April 13, when he broke out of a short-lived early-season slump. The young slugger has been nothing short of dazzling since then, as his goose egg on Tuesday broke an 18-game hitting streak that saw him bat .385 with seven jacks and 17 RBIs in 65 at-bats.
The case for Cueto: If Upton has been on a tear, Cueto has been flat-out ridiculous lately. After a season-opening start that saw him give up four runs in six innings against the Pirates - his only loss -- Cueto has given up a measly three runs in 33 2/3 innings while striking out 23 and walking 10 in five outings.
The Verdict
Both are talented youngsters on the upswing of their careers, both have been on a tear, and both have good numbers against their respective Wednesday opponents.
The decision is a tough one.
That said, the odds seem to favor the Dominican fireballer in this scenario.
Despite the small sample size, the numbers suggest that Upton is perhaps finally beginning to cool off, while Cueto has shown no signs of relenting. What's more, one would think that the two long balls he's allowed to Upton are fresh in his mind, especially given that he's served up just two big flies all year. Chances are, the young hurler will make every effort to adjust.
Besides, you can't argue with Cueto's slim 0.46 ERA in three road starts this season, a mark that's over two full runs lower than his ERA at home.
Still, there's only one way to truly find out:
Watch live tonight on MLB.TV at 9:40 p.m. ET and then check out The Showdown's at-bat-by-at-bat review of the matchup after the game.
Alden Gonzalez is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.
