NewsInbox: Was Holliday trade worth it?
Cardinals reporter Matthew Leach fields fans' questions
By Matthew Leach / MLB.com
11/13/09 5:39 PM EST
Welcome to the Cardinals Inbox. As always, if you have a question, use the link below to submit it -- and please be sure to include your first name, last initial and hometown. If you send a regular e-mail, rather than using the form, be certain to use the word "mailbag" in the subject header -- otherwise your mail may be directed to the spam folder or possibly be ignored in an unbecoming manner.Also, please understand that literally hundreds of e-mails arrive every week, so they can't all be used in the Inbox or receive personal responses.
If Matt Holliday does not sign with St. Louis, doesn't that make his trade for Brett Wallace a huge mistake and loss?
-- John M., Edmond, Okla.
It's a fair question, to be sure. But in my opinion, it's actually two questions. One, would that make the trade a mistake? And two, would that mean the Cardinals lost the trade? It may seem they're the same, but I don't think they are.
It's my opinion that the Cardinals knew what they were getting into at the time of the trade, and fans and media did, as well. It was never a secret that Holliday would be difficult to sign. So the assessment of whether it was a mistake, really, doesn't change. Because the question was this: Is it worth giving up what they gave up in order to get two-plus months of Holliday, as well as the percentage chance of retaining him? If that chance was 40 percent in July, then that's what you should base an assessment of the trade on.
But there are of course more subtleties. Mistake and loss are different things when it comes to a trade. You can make the right move at the time -- which I believe the Cardinals did -- and still lose the trade. If Brett Wallace goes on to rake for Oakland over six full years, and Shane Peterson develops, and Clayton Mortensen provides the A's with a cheap, back-of-the-rotation starter, and Holliday leaves, then the deal was likely a loss for the Cardinals. But that doesn't mean it was a mistake.
Do you see Skip Schumaker at second base in 2010, or could he move back to the outfield if Holliday doesn't return?
-- Hugh A., New Haven, Conn.
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It is extremely unlikely that Schumaker will return to the outfield. It's not fair to him, but also it doesn't make much baseball sense. Schumaker's bat is a much better fit for second base than for a corner outfield spot. At second base, he's an offensive asset. At a corner outfield position, that would be much less true. He's staying where he is, barring something really shocking.
With Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Kyle Lohse coming back next year as starters, it seems logical to let Joel Pineiro walk if he demands too much money, find a good left-handed starter, re-sign John Smoltz to one year, and you would still have Mitchell Boggs, Jaime Garcia, and Blake Hawksworth as viable fill-ins if needed in the starting rotation. What is your take on this idea?
-- Brad S., Madisonville, Mo.
I think you're close to what will happen. Smoltz is on the radar, and he liked the fit in St. Louis. I think there's a good chance he returns. I don't expect they'll sign him AND another starter, though. It will likely be Smoltz OR another veteran. And then in the last spot, it will be one of the youngsters -- with Garcia perhaps being the favorite at this point.
Wasn't Hawksworth a starter in the Minors? With his impressive rookie showing, any chance he'll get a look as a starter in 2010?
-- Wes M., Milwaukee
Hawksworth, like several other Cardinals relievers, will probably get stretched out like a starter early in Spring Training. However, he's low on the chart of pitchers who are likely to get very serious consideration for the rotation. Hawksworth would probably really need to dazzle in order to force his way out of the bullpen and into the conversation.
What are the dates that the MVP and Cy Young Awards will be announced?
-- Mitch S., Sikeston, Mo.
The National League Rookie of the Year Award will be announced on Monday. On Wednesday, NL Manager of the Year will be announced. National League Cy Young is announced on Thursday, and National League MVP will be announced on Tuesday, Nov. 24.
Matthew Leach is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.
