NewsInbox: Looking at offseason strategy
Giants fans ask about free agents, trade possibilities and more
By Chris Haft / MLB.com
11/13/09 4:45 PM EST
It's obvious that the Giants need to upgrade the offense. What do you think their priorities should be in targeting free agents or players in trades? For example, a run producer at first base, third base or left field, or an outfielder/leadoff hitter? Also, general manager Brian Sabean indicated that he'd rather wait for the free-agent market to define itself before making a move. Do you agree with the team sitting back for a while or should it be more aggressive in pursuing offensive additions?-- Rob P., Morgan Hill, Calif. The first question is simple to answer. The Giants must obtain an accomplished hitter, regardless of position. They can adjust the lineup to suit him. For instance, Pablo Sandoval can play third if a first baseman arrives, or vice-versa. With multiple leadoff options available -- Eugenio Velez, Andres Torres and even Aaron Rowand, who briefly flourished in that spot last season -- adding a run producer is more important than a top-of-the-order guy. Sabean's inclination to delay free-agent signings could prove wise, though the Giants probably will have to announce their intentions early with premier hitters such as Jason Bay and Matt Holliday. Often, Sabean has filled most of the Giants' needs by the Winter Meetings. Such quick action seemed necessary in previous offseasons. Last year, he made an excellent move by engineering the offseason's first signing, Jeremy Affeldt. The Giants were almost as aggressive in pursuing Edgar Renteria, which didn't work as well.
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With multiple teams facing dire financial straits, some helpful players might not be tendered contracts, which would deepen the free-agent pool in December. I try to avoid second-guessing, but last offseason solid middle infielders such as Orlando Cabrera and Orlando Hudson, as well as outfielder Bobby Abreu, remained available as Spring Training opened. They received a combined $12.3 million, exceeding the average annual value of Renteria's contract by only $3 million. This offseason, if the Giants stick to Sabean's announced plan, they might be able to seize similar bargains. But what if 20 or 25 other teams decide to play the same waiting game?
What do you think the Giants should do with Rowand? His performance at the plate is far below what we expected. Do you think the Giants should shop him around?-- Kevin A., San Lorenzo, Calif. It doesn't matter what I think. Rowand's owed $12 million in each of the next three seasons and has a limited no-trade clause in his contract. Dealing him would be extremely difficult. The Giants probably will try to trade Rowand, but meanwhile they must consider ways to maximize his production. Rowand remains capable of thriving. Entering May 16 batting .227, he rapped three hits off Johan Santana that day, launching a 24-game, 39-for-96 binge (.406) that lifted his average to .311. At that point he seemed poised for a decent season. But Rowand never fully recovered from an 0-for-16 skid to start the second half. Rowand's no dummy. He's aware of his fluctuating performance and the fans' impatience with him. I won't predict a huge 2010 resurgence from Rowand -- I keep doing that with Barry Zito, who hasn't finished above .500 in any of his three Giants seasons -- but I'd wager that he'll be even more driven than he already is. The Giants are in desperate need of a big bat. What free agents are available that can produce 20-homer seasons and can take some of the weight off Pablo Sandoval's shoulders?
-- Payton E., San Francisco FYI: The Giants intend to remove weight from Sandoval's tummy, not his shoulders. As for the question, here's a list of the anticipated free agents who hit at least 20 homers in 2009. Forgive me if I accidentally omitted somebody. In descending order: Bay (36 homers), Russell Branyan (31), Hideki Matsui (28), Jermaine Dye (27), Hank Blalock (25), Adam LaRoche (25), Mike Cameron (24), Johnny Damon (24), Holliday (24), Jim Thome (23), Mark DeRosa (23) and Marlon Byrd (20). I was wondering why you stated that Bay is a better defensive left fielder then Holliday. Has anyone in the Giants organization told you that this is their opinion, or is this just your opinion? If this is your opinion, then are you aware that all defensive metrics that I am aware of strongly disagree? If this is the opinion of someone in the Giants organization, is he or she aware that the publicly available defensive metrics strongly disagree? Whoever's opinion this is, what is that person's opinion of publicly available defensive metrics, such as Ultimate Zone Rating found on fangraphs.com, which shows Holliday's defense to be about 25 runs per season better than Bay's?
-- Mark R., Folsom, Calif. I suspect that you aren't Mark R. You're actually my ex-wife, who remains undefeated in arguments with me. This was among two or three e-mails Inbox received that pointed out the flaws in my conclusion, which I drew from chatting with a couple of scouts and having seen both Bay and Holliday play (not enough, obviously). Yes, I do find merit in zone ratings, and I'll strive to consult them the next time I undertake a project like comparing Johnny Bench to Eliezer Alfonzo. Do you think the Giants would consider trading Brian Wilson? With his salary arbitration coming up, he is going to be due quite a bit more money. We might be able to get some good talent in return for an All-Star closer, and I believe that Sergio Romo or Affeldt would fill in just fine.
-- William R., Sacramento, Calif. The Giants will consider virtually any deal if it brings them offense. That said, they'd be extremely reluctant to trade Wilson, who improved this year upon his All-Star season of 2008 (if you don't believe me, have Mark R. check the statistics for you). Affeldt and Romo have succeeded during brief stints as closers in the Majors and Minors, respectively. But placing them on that tightrope without a safety net, so to speak, has obvious risks. Moreover, the postseason reminded us that a strong bullpen is essential to ultimate success. Do you think the Giants should pursue Vladimir Guerrero as he becomes a free agent this upcoming offseason?
-- Daniel A., San Francisco I've always admired Guerrero's skills. But he'd be a risky acquisition at this juncture of his career. He'll be 35 next Opening Day, his injury history is lengthening, he hit under .300 for the first time in a full season this year and his OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) has dipped from .950 in 2007 to .886 in 2008 and .794 this season. Those trends aren't promising.
Chris Haft is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.
